Causality and Probability – CAUSAPROBA

Fachbereich Philosophie Universität Konstanz in cooperation with Institut d’Histoire et de Philosophie Sciences et des Techniques (CNRS/Paris I/ENS)

Directors of the Project
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Spohn (FB Philosophie Universität Konstanz)
Prof. Dr. Jacques Dubucs, Senior Scientist (CNRS) (Institut d’Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techiques)

Collaborators
Dr. Michael Baumgartner (FB Philosophie Universität Konstanz)
Dr. Luke Glynn (FB Philosophie Universität Konstanz)

Associates
Dr. Franz Huber (FB Philosophie Universität Konstanz)
Dr. Thomas Krödel (Institut für Philosophie HU Berlin)

Associated PhD Students
Maryia Ramanawa, Michael Hoffmann, Stefan Hohenadel (FB Philosophie Universität Konstanz)

Partner Insitute
Institut d'histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), Paris

Causation, in particular in its connection to probability, has emerged as one of the most active fields in philosophy of science and its neighboring fields. Still, the current state of research is incomplete; central issues are starting being tackled only in the recent years or are even not really in the focus. The joint project wants to inquire four such issues: When precisely does a specific event or fact actually cause another event or fact? (As opposed to: what are causal laws?) How precisely are “this-worldly” mechanistic conceptions of causation related to “other-worldly” counterfactual conceptions? How can we have causation on different (micro and macro) levels and how then do the levels relate? And in which sense are causal relations features of objective reality? Whereas the first three subprojects engage in various details of the foundations of causal theorizing, the fourth subproject deepens the philosophical background of the current discussions. All subprojects have their own topic; but they are interrelated, and they will immensely profit from mutual cooperation. Together they will considerably promote the current state of research. For all subprojects, the role of probability is of vital importance; so, probabilistic methodology will be a further uniting component of the joint project. The IHPST and the Philosophy Department of the University of Konstanz are leading institutions for philosophy of science in their countries and have a long-standing cooperation. Thus they create optimal presuppositions for a successful implementation of the joint project.

Papers
M. Baumgartner (forthcoming), Interventionism and Epiphenomenalism, Canadian Journal of Philosophy.

M. Baumgartner, (under review), The Logical Form of Interventionism.

M. Baumgartner, U. Hofmann (under review), Determinism and the Method of Difference.

L. Glynn (2010), Deterministic Chance, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 61 (2010), 51–80. [draft]

L. Glynn (cond. accepted), A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

L. Glynn (under review), Of Miracles and Interventions.

L. Glynn (under review), Causal Foundationalism with a Difference: A Response to Ney on Physical Causation and Difference-Making.

W. Spohn (2010), The Structural Model and the Ranking Theoretic Approach to Causation: A Comparison, in: R. Dechter, H. Geffner, J. Y. Halpern (eds.), Festschrift for Judea Pearl, San Mateo, CA: Kauffmann, pp. 493–508.

W. Spohn (forthcoming), Chance and Necessity: From Humean Supervenience to Humean Projection, in: E. Eells, J. Fetzer (eds.), The Place of Probability, in: Science, Springer, Dordrecht.

W. Spohn (forthcoming), Reversing 30 Years of Discussion: Why Causal Decision Theorists Should One-Box, in: Synthese.

Book Reviews
M. Baumgartner (forthcoming), Review of J.T. Robert’s “The Law-Governed Universe”, Metascience.

L. Glynn (forthcoming), Review of D.H. Mellor’s “The Matter of Chance”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

Workshops
Workshop on “Multi-level Causation”, March 25–26, IHPST, Paris

Workshop on “Actual Causation”, Sept. 23–24, University of Konstanz
For many decades, counterfactual theories of causation were alone in their concern with token-level or actual causation, whereas the other theoretical frameworks primarily analyzed type-level or generic causation. In recent years, however, the overall focus has noticeably shifted towards actual causation. Among the issues that have attracted philosophers' interest are, for example, the relational properties of actual causation, its context-sensitivity, or questions concerning cases of overdetermination, preemption, and prevention. Theories of actual causation developed over the past 10 years are (unsurprisingly) as diverse as the problems they tackle. Their philosophical motivations, foundations, and theoretical credentials diverge, just as do their assessments of many exemplary causal processes. This workshop brings together some of the leading authors that have shaped the recent debates on actual causation. It provides a forum for discussion and exchange of the newest results and ideas.
Speakers: Michael Baumgartner, David Danks, Isabelle Drouet, Luke Glynn, Ned Hall, Jens Harbecke, Christopher Hitchcock, Franz Huber, Max Kistler, and L.A. Paul.

Colloquia
Research Colloquium Wintersemester 2009/10, University of Konstanz [Program]

Research Colloquium Sommersemester 2010, University of Konstanz [Program]